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HomeMy WebLinkAbout090120-09.2 ADMINISTRATIVE STAFF REPORT 9.2 TO: Mayor and Town Council September 1, 2020 SUBJECT: Resolution No. 63-2020, supporting the Contra Costa County Mayors Conference endorsement of the ‘Plan Bay Area 2050’ Methodology as the basis for the 2022-2030 Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) under review by the Association of Bay Area Governments BACKGROUND In 1969, the state mandated that all California cities, towns and counties must plan for the housing needs of all residents—regardless of income. This state mandate is called the Housing Element and Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA). As part of RHNA, the California Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) determines the total number of new homes each metropolitan region needs to build—and how affordable those homes need to be—in order to meet the housing needs of people at all income levels. The Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) is the San Francisco Bay Area’s metropolitan planning organization (MPO) and is required by state law to conduct the RHNA process every eight years. In practice, this means that ABAG would distribute the region’s share of assigned housing to each of its cities and counties. It’s critical to understand that cities are not required to build housing but rather plan for it by ensuring that there are enough appropriately zoned lands to accommodate the assigned units. Each local government does so by updating the Housing Element of its general plan to show the parcels on which their assigned their housings could be built. DISCUSSION In June 2020, State HCD determined that the Bay Area region must plan to accommodate 441,176 housing units over the upcoming 8-year housing element cycle (2022-2030). According to ABAG, this represents a 135% increase from the previous housing assignment. ABAG’s Housing Methodology Committee (HMC) – comprised of region’s elected officials, jurisdictional staff, and community stakeholders – is charged with evaluating and making a recommendation on how these housing units would be allocated to the Bay Area’s 101 cities and 9 counties. As a very high level, the most significant decision that is being considered by the HMC is related to what “baseline data” should be used to allocate these housing units. Three methods have been discussed at length and Option #3 is being advanced by the HMC: RHNA Housing Methodology 2 September 1, 2020 1.“2019 Baseline Data” Methodology: This would use the location of existing households (in year 2019) as the basis for allocating additional future housing units. In summary, this methodology. The Town does not support this methodology as it would: •Allocate more housing units into suburban communities •Does not place housing units in proximity to jobs •Does not address transit/transportation congestion, exacerbates long commutes •Does not result in GHG emissions reductions •Continue the narrative of social inequity 2.“Plan Bay Area 2050” Methodology: This would use the recently released Plan Bay Area 2050 document’s growth projections as the basis for allocating the region’s assigned housing units. The Town does support this methodology as it would: •Be consistent with Plan Bay Area 2050 which – among other things – strives to reduce transit and transportation congestion as well as greenhouse gas emissions by placing units closer to job centers; and therefore •Allocates more housing units in proximity to major job centers, such as those located in south bay communities 3.“Future Year 2050 Households (Draft Blueprint)” Methodology: This is considered a comprise hybrid, a “middle road” between the first two methodologies. The Town does not support this methodology. While it would assign fewer housing units to the suburban parts of the Bay Area than the “2019 Baseline Data” method, the housing assignment still far exceeds the infrastructure capacity (water, sewer, roadways) of communities at the edges of the metropolitan region. The graphs below and in Attachment B illustrate the significant differences between using the “2019 Baseline Data” (shown in brown bars) and the “Plan Bay Area 2050” Methods. RHNA Housing Methodology 3 September 1, 2020 Contra Costa Mayors’ Conference Danville representatives facilitated a discussion of the RHNA Methodology options at the Contra Costa Mayors’ Conference at its August 6, 2020 meeting. Consequently, the Mayors’ Conference voted unanimously in support of using the “Plan Bay Area 2050” methodology. This is consistent with Contra Costa’s decades long effort to minimize extraordinary commutes through achieving a greater jobs-housing balance. On August 7, 2020, a letter was forwarded to the ABAG Housing Methodology Committee Chair reflecting this perspective (Attachment C). PUBLIC CONTACT Posting of the meeting agenda serves as notice to the general public. FISCAL IMPACT None. RECOMMENDATION Adopt Resolution No. 63-2020, supporting the Contra Costa County Mayors’ Conference endorsement of the ‘Plan Bay Area 2050’ Methodology as the basis for the 2022-2030 Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) under review by the Association of Bay Area Governments. Prepared and Reviewed by: Tai J. Williams Assistant Town Manager Attachments: A - Resolution No. 63-2020 B - Contra Costa Public Managers’ Association Letter to the Contra Costa Mayors’ Conference, including a comparison of RHNA Methodology Concepts and Potential Jurisdiction Allocations, dated August 3, 2020 C - Contra Costa Mayors Conference Letter dated August 7, 2020 RESOLUTION NO. 63-2020 SUPPORTING THE CONTRA COSTA COUNTY MAYORS’ CONFERENCE ENDORSEMENT OF THE ‘PLAN BAY AREA 2050’ HOUSING ALLOCATION METHODOLOGY AS THE BASIS FOR THE 2022-2030 REGIONAL HOUSING NEEDS ALLOCATION (RHNA) UNDER REVIEW BY THE ASSOCIATION OF BAY AREA GOVERNMENTS WHEREAS, the Contra Costa County jurisdictions’ recognize and respect the local needs and character of each community, and have a shared interest in maintaining local control of decision-making related to all aspects of the management of each jurisdiction, including but not limited to financial, land use and development, and growth-related matters; and WHEREAS, in June 2020, the California Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) determined that the San Francisco Bay region must plan to accommodate 441,176 housing units over the upcoming 8-year housing element cycle (2022-2030); and WHEREAS, according to Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG), this represents a 135% increase from the previous housing element assignment; and WHEREAS, ABAG has formed a Housing Methodology Committee (HMC) that is charged with evaluating and making a recommendation on how these housing units would be allocated to the Bay Area’s 101 cities and 9 counties; and WHEREAS, at a very high level, the HMC is considering a variety of options and factors for allocating housing units; and WHEREAS, selecting a ‘baseline data’ methodology has the greatest impact on Contra Costa communities and ensuring that there is a match between housing assignments and job centers; and WHEREAS, the Contra Costa Mayors’ Conference at their August 6, 2020 meeting discussed and unanimously supported the ‘Plan Bay Area 2050 Baseline Data Methodology’; and WHEREAS, the Contra Costa Mayors’ Conference sent a letter of support for the ‘Plan Bay Area 2050 Baseline Data Methodology’ on August 7, 2020; now, therefore, be it RESOLVED, that the Town Council re-affirm the Contra Costa Mayors’ Conference letter of support for the support for the ‘Plan Bay Area 2050 Baseline Data Methodology’ which is consistent with decades-long region-wide efforts to: DocuSign Envelope ID: 36152D43-0B8E-487C-BD51-9803C27853DA ATTACHMENT A PAGE 2 OF RESOLUTION NO. 63-2020 •Encourage housing development proximate to job centers, which would in turn •Reduce transit and transportation congestion, helping to alleviate long regionwide commute times; and •Reduce greenhouse gas emissions, consistent with AB 32, SB 375 and the Metropolitan Transportation Commission’s (MTC) Plan Bay Area 2050 policy framework. APPROVED by the Danville Town Council at a regular meeting on September 1, 2020 by the following vote: AYES: NOES: ABSTAINED: ABSENT: ______________________________ MAYOR APPROVED AS TO FORM: ATTEST: _______________________________ ______________________________ CITY ATTORNEY CITY CLERK DocuSign Envelope ID: 36152D43-0B8E-487C-BD51-9803C27853DA The Contra Costa Public Managers’ Association (PMA) is an organization comprised of public managers representing the nineteen cities and county of Contra Costa. The Contra Costa PMA works collaboratively to share information, discuss and find solutions on issues of regional significance. CONTRA COSTA PMA MEMBERS Antioch – R. Bernal Lafayette – N. Srivatsa Pleasant Hill – J. Catalano Brentwood – T. Ogden Martinez – E. Figueroa/M. Chandler Richmond – L. Snideman Clayton – F. Robustelli (Interim) Moraga – C. Battenberg San Pablo – M. Rodriguez /R. Schwartz Concord – V. Barone / K. Trepa Oakley – B. Montgomery San Ramon – J. Gorton/S. Spedowsfski Danville – J. Calabrigo /T. Williams Orinda – S. Salomon Walnut Creek – D. Buckshi/T. Killgore El Cerrito – K. Pinkos/A. Orologas Pinole – A. Murray/H. De La Rosa Contra Costa County – D. Twa Hercules – D. Biggs Pittsburg – G. Evans DATE: August 3, 2020 TO: Gabe Quinto, Conference Chair Gary Pokorny, Executive Director Contra Costa Mayors’ Conference FROM: Eric Figueroa, Chair Contra Costa Public Managers’ Association RE: Update: Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) Methodologies ______________________________________________________________________________ The Contra Costa Public Managers’ Association (PMA) would like to provide an update on recent RHNA process and its potential impacts to Contra Costa communities. In June 2020, the California Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) determined that the San Francisco Bay region must plan to accommodate 441,176 housing units over the upcoming 8-year housing element cycle (2022-2030). According to Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG), this represents a 135% increase from the previous housing assignment. ABAG’s Housing Methodology Committee (Committee) – comprised of region’s elected officials, jurisdictional staff, and community stakeholders – is charged with evaluating and making a recommendation on how these housing units would be allocated to the Bay Area’s 101 cities and 9 counties. As a very high-level summary, the Committee is weighing options related to: 1.What should be used as the “baseline data” for allocating units? Two major methods are under consideration: a.“2019 Baseline” Methodology b.“2050 Plan Bay Area Blueprint” Methodology ATTACHMENT B Page 2 2.What “factors” should be used to refine the baseline data used? 3.What approach should be used to distribute units based on income levels, an income shift or bottom up approach? DISCUSSION Methodology - Baseline Data The selection of ‘baseline data’ methodology has the greatest significance to Contra Costa communities, as illustrated below and Exhibit A (attached): Comparison of Methodologies – Sample of ‘Large’ Contra Costa Communities Comparison of Methodologies – Sample of ‘Middle Sized’ Communities Page 3 The “2019 Baseline” Methodology would use the location of existing households (in year 2019) as the basis for allocating housing units. This methodology: • Allocates more housing units into suburban communities • Does not place housing units in proximity to jobs • Does not address transit/transportation congestion, exacerbates long commutes • Does not result in GHG emissions reductions • Continues the narrative of social inequity The “2050 Plan Bay Area” Methodology would use the recently released Plan Bay Area’s growth projections as the basis for allocating the region’s assigned housing units. This methodology would: • Consistent with Plan Bay Area 2050 which – among other things – strives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by placing units closer to job centers; therefore • Allocates more housing units in south bay communities with mega job centers The ABAG Housing Methodology Committee is scheduled to: • August 13, 2020: Meet to finalize consideration of the preferred ‘baseline data’ methodology, refinement ‘factors’, and income allocation. • September 18, 2020: Forward recommendation to ABAG Executive Board RECOMMENDATION The Contra Costa Public Managers Association recommends that the Contra Costa Mayors Conference consider two actions: 1. Request that ABAG defer selection of a baseline methodology for 3-6 months. This deferral is appropriate given that its cities and counties – currently focusing on the need to react and respond to the ongoing global pandemic while dealing with the resultant economic fallout - need additional time to consider the far- reaching implications of this decision. 2. Consider issuing a letter of support for “2050 Plan Bay Area” Methodology, which would reduce greenhouse gas emissions – as required by state law -- and strikes a more equitable jobs/housing balance for Contra Costa County and the majority of its cities. EXHIBIT A Attachment from ABAG Housing Methodology Committee Meeting on July 9, 2020 (Item 6a Attachment A) Plan Bay Area 2050 and RHNA Methodology Concepts Jurisdiction Potential Allocations 4120 8910 4120 8960 7710 3950 30900 24860 34840 2808026280 33580 15770 8220 16720 88107460 14280 1940 8340 1740 7510 9570 2590 1750 5230 1840 5520 7190 2650 53710 80420 57000 85160 59160 44840 77707270 81707650 10530 11160 4890 6170 4860 6130 8750 6890 1412014400 11680120101187011740 108220 55690 100350 5167052090 100160 13540 10280 13890 106809290 12020 1280 4300 1420 4760 6600 2120 2200 5340 2570 6260 7700 3790 3220 6570 3190 65806390 4350 770 6640 710 6150 7910 1640 Unincorporated Contra Costa (2019 hhs: 59109) (Contra Costa County) Unincorporated Sonoma (2019 hhs: 54038) (Sonoma County) Vallejo (2019 hhs: 40728) (Solano County) Santa Clara (2019 hhs: 46070) (Santa Clara County) Santa Rosa (2019 hhs: 64977) (Sonoma County) Sunnyvale (2019 hhs: 57327) (Santa Clara County) Unincorporated Alameda (2019 hhs: 48810) (Alameda County) Oakland (2019 hhs: 162246) (Alameda County) San Francisco (2019 hhs: 365197) (San Francisco County) San Jose (2019 hhs: 321556) (Santa Clara County) San Mateo (2019 hhs: 39428) (San Mateo County) Berkeley (2019 hhs: 47604) (Alameda County) Concord (2019 hhs: 44367) (Contra Costa County) Fremont (2019 hhs: 73263) (Alameda County) Hayward (2019 hhs: 47532) (Alameda County) Al l o c . p e r 20 1 9 h o u s e h o l d s h a r e Cr e s c e n t (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bl u e p r i n t A l l o c a t i o n (S c a l e d t o R H N D ) Cr e s c e n t ( B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Al l o c . p e r 20 1 9 h o u s e h o l d s h a r e Cr e s c e n t (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bl u e p r i n t A l l o c a t i o n (S c a l e d t o R H N D ) Cr e s c e n t ( B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Al l o c . p e r 20 1 9 h o u s e h o l d s h a r e Cr e s c e n t (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bl u e p r i n t A l l o c a t i o n (S c a l e d t o R H N D ) Cr e s c e n t ( B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Al l o c . p e r 20 1 9 h o u s e h o l d s h a r e Cr e s c e n t (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bl u e p r i n t A l l o c a t i o n (S c a l e d t o R H N D ) Cr e s c e n t ( B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 0 30,000 60,000 90,000 0 5,000 10,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 0 2,500 5,000 7,500 0 2,500 5,000 7,500 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 0 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 Alloc. per 2019 household share Crescent (2019 HH baseline) Bottom-Up 3 Factors (2019 HH baseline) Blueprint Allocation (Scaled to RHND) Crescent (Blueprint baseline) Bottom-Up 3 Factors (Blueprint baseline) Allocation using 2019 household distribution and no factors; HMC concepts (Crescent Bsln HH19 and Bottom-up three-factor concept) Jurisdiction potential allocations Group of Cities: Largest 15 (by 2019 households) Page 1 ABAG HMC Meeting #8 | July 9, 2020 3250 5180 3090 49804980 3240 590 2080 500 18001730 490 4650 2970 4840 31202780 4280 3010 4500 3840 57905210 3610 360 1220 340 11601060 360 180 1280 190 1340 1730 260 270 810 220 640650 230 250 3160 200 25802540 220 280 630 300 690 950 690 1530 2040 1610 2140 3120 2460 570 810 460 650640 440 110 650 110 680 1000 210 1840 3580 1910 3720 5490 2870 4560 2590 4100 23502020 3420 7780 4160 7400 40103250 5800 47504290 3770343034803820 Daly City (2019 hhs: 32151) (San Mateo County) Danville (2019 hhs: 15670) (Contra Costa County) Dixon (2019 hhs: 6174) (Solano County) Dublin (2019 hhs: 21502) (Alameda County) Campbell (2019 hhs: 17177) (Santa Clara County) Clayton (2019 hhs: 4041) (Contra Costa County) Corte Madera (2019 hhs: 3978) (Marin County) Cupertino (2019 hhs: 20035) (Santa Clara County) Belmont (2019 hhs: 10658) (San Mateo County) Benicia (2019 hhs: 10666) (Solano County) Brentwood (2019 hhs: 19252) (Contra Costa County) Burlingame (2019 hhs: 12465) (San Mateo County) Alameda (2019 hhs: 30742) (Alameda County) Albany (2019 hhs: 6552) (Alameda County) American Canyon (2019 hhs: 5884) (Napa County) Antioch (2019 hhs: 33875) (Contra Costa County) Al l o c . p e r 20 1 9 h o u s e h o l d s h a r e Cr e s c e n t (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bl u e p r i n t A l l o c a t i o n (S c a l e d t o R H N D ) Cr e s c e n t ( B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Al l o c . p e r 20 1 9 h o u s e h o l d s h a r e Cr e s c e n t (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bl u e p r i n t A l l o c a t i o n (S c a l e d t o R H N D ) Cr e s c e n t ( B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Al l o c . p e r 20 1 9 h o u s e h o l d s h a r e Cr e s c e n t (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bl u e p r i n t A l l o c a t i o n (S c a l e d t o R H N D ) Cr e s c e n t ( B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Al l o c . p e r 20 1 9 h o u s e h o l d s h a r e Cr e s c e n t (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bl u e p r i n t A l l o c a t i o n (S c a l e d t o R H N D ) Cr e s c e n t ( B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) 0 2,000 4,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 0 250 500 750 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 0 200 400 600 800 0 250 500 750 1,000 0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 0 500 1,000 1,500 0 200 400 600 800 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 Alloc. per 2019 household share Crescent (2019 HH baseline) Bottom-Up 3 Factors (2019 HH baseline) Blueprint Allocation (Scaled to RHND) Crescent (Blueprint baseline) Bottom-Up 3 Factors (Blueprint baseline) Allocation using 2019 household distribution and no factors; HMC concepts (Crescent Bsln HH19 and Bottom-up three-factor concept) Jurisdiction potential allocations Group of Cities: Middle Cities (by 2019 households) Page 2 ABAG HMC Meeting #8 | July 9, 2020 290 770 420 11501170 470 5090 4010 5430 4290 6050 7600 300 500 320 530 750 450 700 1180 540 920980 550 790 1230 950 14901680 1150 600 2570 520 22602060 560 190 890 220 1030 1350 410 50704640 45504180 5040 5410 2800 880 4160 13001030 3230 16801840 16601820 2550 2310 170 830 150 760 620 120 1220 2360 1210 2370 1810 900 250 650 180 480550 220 260 480 270 500 720 380 1050 1900 870 15801550 830 60 2500 50 22002040 140 Larkspur (2019 hhs: 6020) (Marin County) Livermore (2019 hhs: 31124) (Alameda County) Los Altos (2019 hhs: 11181) (Santa Clara County) Los Gatos (2019 hhs: 12584) (Santa Clara County) Healdsburg (2019 hhs: 4603) (Sonoma County) Hercules (2019 hhs: 8347) (Contra Costa County) Hillsborough (2019 hhs: 3843) (San Mateo County) Lafayette (2019 hhs: 9591) (Contra Costa County) Fairfield (2019 hhs: 37344) (Solano County) Foster City (2019 hhs: 12696) (San Mateo County) Gilroy (2019 hhs: 15725) (Santa Clara County) Half Moon Bay (2019 hhs: 4434) (San Mateo County) East Palo Alto (2019 hhs: 7202) (San Mateo County) El Cerrito (2019 hhs: 10346) (Contra Costa County) Emeryville (2019 hhs: 6381) (Alameda County) Fairfax (2019 hhs: 3386) (Marin County) Al l o c . p e r 20 1 9 h o u s e h o l d s h a r e Cr e s c e n t (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bl u e p r i n t A l l o c a t i o n (S c a l e d t o R H N D ) Cr e s c e n t ( B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Al l o c . p e r 20 1 9 h o u s e h o l d s h a r e Cr e s c e n t (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bl u e p r i n t A l l o c a t i o n (S c a l e d t o R H N D ) Cr e s c e n t ( B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Al l o c . p e r 20 1 9 h o u s e h o l d s h a r e Cr e s c e n t (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bl u e p r i n t A l l o c a t i o n (S c a l e d t o R H N D ) Cr e s c e n t ( B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Al l o c . p e r 20 1 9 h o u s e h o l d s h a r e Cr e s c e n t (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bl u e p r i n t A l l o c a t i o n (S c a l e d t o R H N D ) Cr e s c e n t ( B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) 0 200 400 600 0 200 400 600 0 500 1,000 1,500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 0 1,000 2,000 0 200 400 600 800 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 0 500 1,000 1,500 0 1,000 2,000 0 500 1,000 0 2,000 4,000 0 300 600 900 1,200 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 0 200 400 600 0 300 600 900 1,200 Alloc. per 2019 household share Crescent (2019 HH baseline) Bottom-Up 3 Factors (2019 HH baseline) Blueprint Allocation (Scaled to RHND) Crescent (Blueprint baseline) Bottom-Up 3 Factors (Blueprint baseline) Allocation using 2019 household distribution and no factors; HMC concepts (Crescent Bsln HH19 and Bottom-up three-factor concept) Jurisdiction potential allocations Group of Cities: Middle Cities (by 2019 households) Page 3 ABAG HMC Meeting #8 | July 9, 2020 170 2010 160 1950 2350 310 10300 3660 11110 39903450 9670 940 3160 980 3330 4640 1540 460 1330 390 11501110 370 27002450 28002570 2150 2330 860 1110 710 920910 680 2490 1730 2740 19102280 3360 160 2670 120 21102250 200 20 1220 20 9501000 30 1080 1550 1180 1700 2330 1650 1670 2570 1630 2530 3310 2180 15040 5790 14390 56204480 11130 2920 1620 2680 15001330 2310 15240 6800 14930 67605540 12380 930 1230 970 1290 1930 1600 2020 2500 2140 2660 3650 3120 Orinda (2019 hhs: 6827) (Contra Costa County) Pacifica (2019 hhs: 13894) (San Mateo County) Palo Alto (2019 hhs: 27629) (Santa Clara County) Petaluma (2019 hhs: 22519) (Sonoma County) Napa (2019 hhs: 28619) (Napa County) Newark (2019 hhs: 14098) (Alameda County) Novato (2019 hhs: 20445) (Marin County) Oakley (2019 hhs: 11931) (Contra Costa County) Milpitas (2019 hhs: 21285) (Santa Clara County) Moraga (2019 hhs: 5594) (Contra Costa County) Morgan Hill (2019 hhs: 14409) (Santa Clara County) Mountain View (2019 hhs: 34195) (Santa Clara County) Martinez (2019 hhs: 14522) (Contra Costa County) Menlo Park (2019 hhs: 13277) (San Mateo County) Mill Valley (2019 hhs: 6201) (Marin County) Millbrae (2019 hhs: 8241) (San Mateo County) Al l o c . p e r 20 1 9 h o u s e h o l d s h a r e Cr e s c e n t (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bl u e p r i n t A l l o c a t i o n (S c a l e d t o R H N D ) Cr e s c e n t ( B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Al l o c . p e r 20 1 9 h o u s e h o l d s h a r e Cr e s c e n t (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bl u e p r i n t A l l o c a t i o n (S c a l e d t o R H N D ) Cr e s c e n t ( B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Al l o c . p e r 20 1 9 h o u s e h o l d s h a r e Cr e s c e n t (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bl u e p r i n t A l l o c a t i o n (S c a l e d t o R H N D ) Cr e s c e n t ( B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Al l o c . p e r 20 1 9 h o u s e h o l d s h a r e Cr e s c e n t (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bl u e p r i n t A l l o c a t i o n (S c a l e d t o R H N D ) Cr e s c e n t ( B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 0 1,000 2,000 0 300 600 900 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 0 1,000 2,000 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 0 500 1,000 Alloc. per 2019 household share Crescent (2019 HH baseline) Bottom-Up 3 Factors (2019 HH baseline) Blueprint Allocation (Scaled to RHND) Crescent (Blueprint baseline) Bottom-Up 3 Factors (Blueprint baseline) Allocation using 2019 household distribution and no factors; HMC concepts (Crescent Bsln HH19 and Bottom-up three-factor concept) Jurisdiction potential allocations Group of Cities: Middle Cities (by 2019 households) Page 4 ABAG HMC Meeting #8 | July 9, 2020 70 800 60 760 630 60 50105670 4020458044403750 920 1730 990 1880 2650 1450 1360 3540 1780 46805000 2170 330 720 380 840 1100 540 45704600 4780486048305210 250 1020 180 760860 200 310 960 380 1170 1460 540 1130 2240 1240 2450 3420 1880 41403920 48704640 5890 6550 1310 2010 1610 25002510 1660 34402960 33602900 3710 4220 1090 2220 980 20002220 1120 30 440 30 460 700 80 950 2340 850 21201880 800 4160 5610 3320 45104500 3180 San Leandro (2019 hhs: 30851) (Alameda County) San Pablo (2019 hhs: 9036) (Contra Costa County) San Rafael (2019 hhs: 22876) (Marin County) San Ramon (2019 hhs: 27761) (Contra Costa County) Rohnert Park (2019 hhs: 16356) (Sonoma County) San Anselmo (2019 hhs: 5293) (Marin County) San Bruno (2019 hhs: 15502) (San Mateo County) San Carlos (2019 hhs: 11590) (San Mateo County) Pleasanton (2019 hhs: 27433) (Alameda County) Redwood City (2019 hhs: 29842) (San Mateo County) Richmond (2019 hhs: 36352) (Contra Costa County) Rio Vista (2019 hhs: 4319) (Solano County) Piedmont (2019 hhs: 3863) (Alameda County) Pinole (2019 hhs: 6778) (Contra Costa County) Pittsburg (2019 hhs: 21136) (Contra Costa County) Pleasant Hill (2019 hhs: 13685) (Contra Costa County) Al l o c . p e r 20 1 9 h o u s e h o l d s h a r e Cr e s c e n t (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bl u e p r i n t A l l o c a t i o n (S c a l e d t o R H N D ) Cr e s c e n t ( B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Al l o c . p e r 20 1 9 h o u s e h o l d s h a r e Cr e s c e n t (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bl u e p r i n t A l l o c a t i o n (S c a l e d t o R H N D ) Cr e s c e n t ( B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Al l o c . p e r 20 1 9 h o u s e h o l d s h a r e Cr e s c e n t (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bl u e p r i n t A l l o c a t i o n (S c a l e d t o R H N D ) Cr e s c e n t ( B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Al l o c . p e r 20 1 9 h o u s e h o l d s h a r e Cr e s c e n t (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bl u e p r i n t A l l o c a t i o n (S c a l e d t o R H N D ) Cr e s c e n t ( B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 0 200 400 600 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 0 2,000 4,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 0 300 600 900 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 0 250 500 750 1,000 0 500 1,000 1,500 0 200 400 600 800 0 2,000 4,000 0 1,000 2,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Alloc. per 2019 household share Crescent (2019 HH baseline) Bottom-Up 3 Factors (2019 HH baseline) Blueprint Allocation (Scaled to RHND) Crescent (Blueprint baseline) Bottom-Up 3 Factors (Blueprint baseline) Allocation using 2019 household distribution and no factors; HMC concepts (Crescent Bsln HH19 and Bottom-up three-factor concept) Jurisdiction potential allocations Group of Cities: Middle Cities (by 2019 households) Page 5 ABAG HMC Meeting #8 | July 9, 2020 1160 2120 1040 19201760 920 160 940 170 1020 1480 300 34803200 30002770 3470 3630 600 3530 640 3730 5370 1060 240 830 210 730680 190 390 730 290 550610 310 45704000 41403650 4310 4840 5160 6080 4180 49605090 4560 120 560 130 590 830 180 2330 4500 1800 3470 4280 2160 1820 770 1940 8201100 2820 530 980 570 1060 1480 780 4480 2880 5450 35503430 5300 110 1160 110 1210 1520 130 1960 2650 2180 2960 3390 2570 Vacaville (2019 hhs: 33136) (Solano County) Walnut Creek (2019 hhs: 31424) (Contra Costa County) Windsor (2019 hhs: 9112) (Sonoma County) Unincorporated San Mateo (2019 hhs: 21415) (San Mateo County) Unincorporated Santa Clara (2019 hhs: 26599) (Santa Clara County) Unincorporated Solano (2019 hhs: 6820) (Solano County) Union City (2019 hhs: 20917) (Alameda County) Suisun City (2019 hhs: 9114) (Solano County) Tiburon (2019 hhs: 3761) (Marin County) Unincorporated Marin (2019 hhs: 26421) (Marin County) Unincorporated Napa (2019 hhs: 9373) (Napa County) Saratoga (2019 hhs: 10887) (Santa Clara County) Sausalito (2019 hhs: 4170) (Marin County) Sonoma (2019 hhs: 5122) (Sonoma County) South San Francisco (2019 hhs: 21147) (San Mateo County) Al l o c . p e r 20 1 9 h o u s e h o l d s h a r e Cr e s c e n t (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bl u e p r i n t A l l o c a t i o n (S c a l e d t o R H N D ) Cr e s c e n t ( B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Al l o c . p e r 20 1 9 h o u s e h o l d s h a r e Cr e s c e n t (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bl u e p r i n t A l l o c a t i o n (S c a l e d t o R H N D ) Cr e s c e n t ( B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Al l o c . p e r 20 1 9 h o u s e h o l d s h a r e Cr e s c e n t (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bl u e p r i n t A l l o c a t i o n (S c a l e d t o R H N D ) Cr e s c e n t ( B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Al l o c . p e r 20 1 9 h o u s e h o l d s h a r e Cr e s c e n t (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bl u e p r i n t A l l o c a t i o n (S c a l e d t o R H N D ) Cr e s c e n t ( B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) 0 2,000 4,000 0 500 1,000 1,500 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 0 200 400 600 800 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 0 1,000 2,000 0 500 1,000 1,500 0 200 400 600 800 0 200 400 600 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 0 500 1,000 1,500 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 0 2,000 4,000 Alloc. per 2019 household share Crescent (2019 HH baseline) Bottom-Up 3 Factors (2019 HH baseline) Blueprint Allocation (Scaled to RHND) Crescent (Blueprint baseline) Bottom-Up 3 Factors (Blueprint baseline) Allocation using 2019 household distribution and no factors; HMC concepts (Crescent Bsln HH19 and Bottom-up three-factor concept) Jurisdiction potential allocations Group of Cities: Middle Cities (by 2019 households) Page 6 ABAG HMC Meeting #8 | July 9, 2020 30 330 40 360370 30 280340 290350 530 530 0 260 0 230210 -10 20 280 20 290 400 40 110 180 80 130150 90 350 70 500 10070 340 0 350 0 290290 -10 40 430 30 410 330 30 6920 230 9500 320310 9090 260 330 280 360 500 400 30 160 20 120130 20 20 130 20 140 180 40 340 220 350 230 340 510 140 600 130 570 490 110 730 360 790 390 540 1080 St. Helena (2019 hhs: 2492) (Napa County) Woodside (2019 hhs: 2011) (San Mateo County) Yountville (2019 hhs: 1113) (Napa County) Monte Sereno (2019 hhs: 1326) (Santa Clara County) Portola Valley (2019 hhs: 1789) (San Mateo County) Ross (2019 hhs: 807) (Marin County) Sebastopol (2019 hhs: 3334) (Sonoma County) Cloverdale (2019 hhs: 3252) (Sonoma County) Colma (2019 hhs: 435) (San Mateo County) Cotati (2019 hhs: 3071) (Sonoma County) Los Altos Hills (2019 hhs: 3034) (Santa Clara County) Atherton (2019 hhs: 2284) (San Mateo County) Belvedere (2019 hhs: 931) (Marin County) Brisbane (2019 hhs: 1913) (San Mateo County) Calistoga (2019 hhs: 2100) (Napa County) Al l o c . p e r 20 1 9 h o u s e h o l d s h a r e Cr e s c e n t (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bl u e p r i n t A l l o c a t i o n (S c a l e d t o R H N D ) Cr e s c e n t ( B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Al l o c . p e r 20 1 9 h o u s e h o l d s h a r e Cr e s c e n t (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bl u e p r i n t A l l o c a t i o n (S c a l e d t o R H N D ) Cr e s c e n t ( B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Al l o c . p e r 20 1 9 h o u s e h o l d s h a r e Cr e s c e n t (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bl u e p r i n t A l l o c a t i o n (S c a l e d t o R H N D ) Cr e s c e n t ( B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Al l o c . p e r 20 1 9 h o u s e h o l d s h a r e Cr e s c e n t (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (2 0 1 9 H H b a s e l i n e ) Bl u e p r i n t A l l o c a t i o n (S c a l e d t o R H N D ) Cr e s c e n t ( B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) Bo t t o m - U p 3 F a c t o r s (B l u e p r i n t b a s e l i n e ) 0 100 200 300 400 500 0 200 400 600 0 300 600 900 0 2,500 5,000 7,500 0 100 200 300 400 500 0 50 100 150 0 50 100 150 0 50 100 150 0 100 200 300 400 500 0 100 200 300 0 100 200 300 400 0 100 200 300 0 200 400 0 100 200 0 100 200 300 400 Alloc. per 2019 household share Crescent (2019 HH baseline) Bottom-Up 3 Factors (2019 HH baseline) Blueprint Allocation (Scaled to RHND) Crescent (Blueprint baseline) Bottom-Up 3 Factors (Blueprint baseline) Allocation using 2019 household distribution and no factors; HMC concepts (Crescent Bsln HH19 and Bottom-up three-factor concept) Jurisdiction potential allocations Group of Cities: Smallest 15 (by 2019 households) Page 7 ABAG HMC Meeting #8 | July 9, 2020 Contra Costa Mayors Conference 1 Letter to ABAG HMC C O U N T Y M A Y O R S C O N F E R E N C E 2221 Spyglass Lane, El Cerrito, CA 94530 August 7, 2020 Mayor Jesse Arreguin, Chair Association of Bay Area Governments Housing Methodology Committee 375 Beale Street, Suite 700 San Francisco, CA 94105 RE: Support for the Plan Bay Area 2050 Baseline Data Methodology Chair Arreguin, The Contra Costa Mayors Conference, representing all 19 cities in Contra Costa county, wishes to convey our appreciation for the Housing Methodology Committee’s work on evaluating housing allocation methodologies for the next RHNA cycle (2023-2031). We recognize that it is a daunting task, not only because of the collective recognition to provide more housing that is affordable to a wide range of income levels but also because we can’t forget that where we distribute the 441,176 housing unit assignment by California Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) to the Bay Area is just as important to the overall quality of life for all residents in the Bay Area. In light of these considerations, the Contra Costa Mayors Conference supports and endorses the use of Plan Bay Area 2050 as the baseline data methodology because it is consistent with the decades-long region-wide effort to: 1.Encourage housing development in proximity to jobs, which would in turn; 2.Reduce transit and transportation congestion, helping to alleviate long region wide commutes; and 3.Reduce greenhouse gas emissions, consistent with both AB 32 and SB 375. ATTACHMENT C Contra Costa Mayors Conference 2 Letter to ABAG HMC It is of great concern to Contra Costa communities that the alternative “2019 Baseline Household” method would reverse the decades-long region-wide effort to reduce traffic congestion and GHG emissions through a greater jobs-housing balance. We appreciate your consideration of our perspective and recommendation. Sincerely, /Signed hard copy to follow via U. S. mail. / Gabriel Quinto, Conference Chair Contra Costa Mayors Conference Contra Costa Mayors Conference Membership City of Antioch City of Oakley City of Brentwood City of Orinda City of Clayton City of Pinole City of Concord City of Pittsburg Town of Danville City of Pleasant Hill City of El Cerrito City of Richmond City of Hercules City of San Pablo City of Lafayette City of San Ramon City of Martinez City of Walnut Creek Town of Moraga